Slowing Growth Rates and Mounting Uncertainties Have Middle Market Leaders Proceeding With Caution
While still well above historical averages, year-over-year revenue and employment growth rates considerably slowed during the first half of 2025 and are at the lowest levels of the post-pandemic period (Q4 2021 – Q2 2025). Declining economic confidence, punctuated by a significant dip in national confidence, a reduction in expansionary activity, and an increase in the proportion of companies inclined to hold rather than invest cash, all signal a more conservative growth mindset among middle market leaders. Executives point to rising costs, tariffs, and overall economic uncertainty as the most significant headwinds to growth going forward. Nevertheless, a majority of companies experienced revenue and employment over the past 12 months, and a majority say they will continue to experience growth in both areas over the next 12 months. Further, four out of five companies continue to believe performance is better today compared to one year ago. As companies experience and assess the impacts of new policies and shifting economic conditions, they will remain laser focused on growing revenues, increasing sales, and acquiring customers as the middle market continues to serve as the growth engine of the U.S. economy.